s the EU About to Surrender to Trump’s 30 Percent Tariff Threat?

U.S. President Donald Trump

Attempting to predict U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions is nothing short of foolish.

However, last Saturday, the Trump administration’s threat to impose a 30 percent tariff on the European Union (EU) dealt a significant blow to the bloc’s confidence. The EU has already quietly conceded in trade negotiations, with diplomats admitting that Europe has sacrificed commercial interests to safeguard broader security and defense concerns.

Let’s look back at what has transpired in the EU over the past three weeks. Until mid-June, the EU maintained a firm stance, showcasing its economic strength in negotiations with the U.S. During this period, Europe’s €140 billion trade, as one of the U.S.’s key trading partners, was at risk. At that time, EU officials and diplomats openly criticized the stance taken by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, stating they would never agree to a lightweight deal focused solely on products like cars, beef, aircraft parts, and ethanol. Questions were also raised about the legal enforceability of the tariff reduction agreement the UK made with the U.S. One diplomat firmly stated, “We will never make a deal like Starmer’s.” Another diplomat expressed hope for a deal that is neither as lightweight as the UK’s nor as retaliatory as China’s. A diplomat told *The Guardian* that if Europe does not stand firm against Trump or demand strict regulations, questions will arise about the future of the rules-based international system. They also highlighted risks to jobs, freedom of expression, social security, and public services. At the time, Europe was considering imposing taxes on U.S. tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and X (formerly Twitter), while also threatening tariffs on U.S. cars and alcoholic beverages. However, last week, the EU’s stance shifted. It began pursuing a lightweight deal similar to the UK’s, seeking some relief from the 27.5 percent tariff on car exports and 50 percent on steel imports. In exchange, the EU was willing to impose a 10 percent tariff on most U.S. goods. This deal was proposed to Trump, and since last Wednesday, Europe has been awaiting his decision. Why did the EU change its stance? In one word: Russia. A diplomat admitted last week that harsh realities emerged during the mid-June NATO summit. It will take the EU another 5–10 years to build air, missile, and intelligence capabilities to defend against military attacks. In this context, U.S. support is critical. Trump has continued to supply weapons to Ukraine. While some oppose flattery toward the U.S. President, one diplomat said, “We got what we wanted.” Another diplomat noted that the EU could never maintain a hardline stance like Japan, as Japan is not as reliant on the U.S. for defense. When asked about this shift in negotiations, a Brussels diplomat said on Thursday, “This process has been extremely difficult. It’s hard to view these discussions in isolation.” The diplomat added, “These issues are affecting the entire EU-U.S. relationship, including security and Ukraine’s defense. There are both short-term and long-term considerations. We are seeking a solution that balances short-term and long-term damage.” Diplomats acknowledged that the deal they hoped for was a significant concession. But now, Trump has turned the tables again. A 30 percent tariff on the EU will almost certainly spark a trade war. Even a 15 percent tariff would be difficult to bear.

Today, Monday, EU trade ministers are meeting in Brussels. Tonight, the suspension of Europe’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. expires. It is expected that countries like France will demand a return to a tougher stance during the meeting.