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Nilphamari, May 26, 2025: A potential flood threat looms over the Teesta River on May 30 and 31 due to an anticipated upstream surge, warned Mostafa Kamal Palash, a weather and climate researcher at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. He stated that heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in India’s Assam state from May 29 to June 1, potentially leading to the opening of all gates at the Gajoldoba Barrage. This could trigger a sudden and severe surge in the Teesta River’s Bangladesh section.
In a post on his verified Facebook page on Sunday (May 25), Mostafa Kamal Palash issued this alert, noting that Assam is likely to experience 500 to 800 millimeters of rainfall during this period. This could prompt India to open all gates of the Gajoldoba Barrage, resulting in a massive inflow of water into Bangladesh’s Teesta River. He urged the Ministry of Water Resources and media to take note, recommending that water held upstream of the Teesta Barrage be released by May 29 to lower levels, which would help manage the sudden surge.
Palash further emphasized that there is over a 90% chance of the Gajoldoba Barrage gates being opened. Without immediate action, low-lying char areas along the Teesta could face severe flooding. He called on authorities to regulate water flow upstream of the Teesta Barrage before May 29 to mitigate potential damage.
When contacted, Nurul Islam, a water measurement officer at the Dalia Water Development Board, told Dhaka Post that the Teesta River’s water levels have significantly decreased over the past two days. Since May 15, water flow data has been exchanged with India’s Do-Mohni point, with updates shared daily at 8 AM, 12 PM, and 5 PM. According to the latest data from May 25 afternoon, water levels at Gajoldoba and Do-Mohni points are very low, reducing flow at the Teesta Barrage in Bangladesh. He noted that all 44 gates of the Teesta Barrage have remained open for the past seven days, and due to early monsoon conditions, water flow could increase at any time.
Addressing Mostafa Kamal Palash’s warning, Nurul Islam explained that while the Teesta River is not directly linked to Assam, heavy rainfall there could impact Sikkim and Tibet, influencing the Teesta’s flow into Bangladesh via Sikkim, Darjeeling, Siliguri, Jalpaiguri, and Cooch Behar. Additionally, Assam’s rainfall could lead to a surge in the Brahmaputra River, affecting Kurigram. Consequently, both the Teesta and Brahmaputra rivers are under special surveillance.
Authorities have been urged to take measures to regulate water flow upstream of the Teesta Barrage before May 29 to minimize the risk of flooding and its potential impacts.
AI/MR
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